Once I analyse all the models, I choose a target. This target is merely a region or town base from where I can re-analyse once I am closer or at the target. If conditions change or storms develop earlier or in a slightly different location, an adjustment to both the the target and chase plan may…
Preparing the forecast
What I tend to look for are the main ingredients of instability, rich low level moisture, heat and some forcing mechanism on these models. Added to these ingredients are the winds in the various levels of the atmosphere which are part of the current models. These winds determine where the storm will go often referred…